September normally brings buyers and sellers back to the market. This year, I suspect the real story will be who is actually prepared to move.
There’s something quite predictable about the property market in September.
The schools go back, summer holidays end, the inbox fills up again and suddenly everybody who said, “We’ll think about moving after the summer” starts thinking about moving.
Normally, that gives the housing market a useful second wind.
But I’m not convinced this September will feel quite as normal.
There are certainly buyers around. There are plenty of homes for sale too. What seems to be missing is urgency.
And that changes things.
Plenty of choice, but buyers know it
For much of my career in property, a busy market meant buyers worrying that somebody else would get there first.
That psychology matters.
When people think a property might disappear, they make decisions. They book the second viewing. They speak to the mortgage broker. They put an offer in.
When buyers feel they have plenty of alternatives, the opposite happens.
They wait.
They compare.
They come back next weekend.
And perhaps most importantly, they negotiate.
That is the market sellers are walking into this autumn.
September won’t rescue an ambitious asking price
This is where I think some sellers may come unstuck.
It is tempting to believe that if a property hasn’t sold over the summer, September will bring a fresh wave of buyers and solve the problem.
Sometimes it will.
But a new month doesn’t make an overpriced property better value.
I’ve said this many times over the years: the first few weeks on the market matter enormously. That’s when the property is new, when buyers receive the alerts and when agents have the best opportunity to create interest.
If the asking price is wrong, you can easily waste that window.
By October, the conversation has changed from:
“That’s new.”
to:
“Why hasn’t that sold?”
Not quite the same thing.
The serious sellers could actually do quite well
None of this means I’m pessimistic about the autumn market.
Quite the opposite.
I think there will be transactions and there will be opportunities.
But it could be a very good market for realistic people.
A seller who genuinely wants to move, prices correctly and has their paperwork ready is in a much stronger position than somebody simply testing the market.
Likewise, a buyer with a mortgage agreed, a solicitor lined up and a sensible idea of what they can afford suddenly becomes a very attractive person to have in a chain.
In a slower market, being proceedable matters.
A lot.
The deadline nobody talks about
There is another reason September matters.
Christmas.
It sounds ridiculous mentioning it while we’re barely out of summer, but property transactions are not quick.
Anyone hoping to be comfortably moved before Christmas doesn’t have as much time as they think.
A sale agreed in September can easily run into November or December once you add mortgages, surveys, searches, enquiries and the inevitable problem somewhere in the chain.
Wait until late October to get serious and suddenly Christmas isn’t very far away at all.
I’ve seen this every year.
People underestimate how long moving takes right up until the moment they desperately need it to happen faster.
So, will September be busy?
Probably.
But “busy” and “strong” aren’t necessarily the same thing.
There may be more listings, more viewings and more conversations.
What matters is how many of those turn into agreed sales.
My suspicion is that this autumn will reward people who accept the market for what it is rather than the market they would like it to be.
Buyers have choice.
Affordability still matters.
Sellers need to compete.
And agents will have to work harder to turn interest into transactions.
Perhaps that’s not the exciting September bounce some people are hoping for.
But after more than 20 years watching property markets change, I’ve learned that the best markets aren’t necessarily the busiest ones.
They’re the ones where buyers and sellers finally get realistic enough to meet in the middle.
About the Author
Jonathan Rolande is a UK property expert and commentator with more than 20 years’ experience in the housing market. He regularly shares his perspective on property, housing policy and the wider economy, drawing on decades of experience working through changing market conditions.
Through The Property Brief, Jonathan offers independent, straightforward commentary on what’s happening in the UK property market, and what the headlines don’t always tell you.
Independent commentary on property, housing policy and the UK market, delivered straight to your inbox.
Subscribe to The Property Brief
